Platform · Glossary
Population growth.
The percentage change in population for a geography over a five-year window, sourced from ACS estimates. 3Y uses this as a demand-side input to long-horizon rent and price projections, and as one of the inputs to the location score's urbanization category.
Why population growth matters more than income alone
Strong income levels in a shrinking market produce flat or falling rents over time as units empty out. Modest income levels in a growing market produce rising rents as competition for housing intensifies. The combination of population growth and income trajectory beats either signal alone.
Negative growth is harder to overcome than it looks
A market with negative population growth and otherwise attractive cap rates is selling cheaply for a reason. Cap rates compensate for risk, and demographic decline is one of the most durable risk factors in real estate — slow to reverse, hard to ignore. 3Y surfaces population growth on every market page so the comparison with current pricing is in front of the reader before anything else.